Despite political statements and numerous assurances from Western politicians, in general, the West’s aid to Ukraine can be characterized as “chaotic.” This is largely due to the fact that equipment is being provided in insufficient quantities and has not been standardized, which causes problems with logistics. However, upon closer analysis, it becomes clear that some mistakes were made that could have been avoided. The idea that such military assistance has been nothing but effective has become a sort of dogma. And while Western military and technical assistance provided to Ukraine have played a significant role in helping the country retake the initiative, it has not been without its issues. More than a year after the start of hostilities, a definitive positional stalemate materialized on the battlefield. To begin with, the level of effectiveness for Western aid to Ukraine needs to be evaluated. But beyond that, a number of considerations explain why the current Ukrainian counteroffensive has been so difficult and whether it will succeed in its current form.
In this, some analysts have posited that the notions of a “failed counteroffensive” are a matter of the West’s inflated expectations and accompanying political pressure ( Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, May 7). Meanwhile, an unsuccessful push was observed in the Robotino area, which cost an entire battalion-tactical group from one of Ukraine’s armored brigades ( T.me/lost_armour, July 31). This will make it possible for Ukraine to successfully employ its operational reserve to reach the flank of the main grouping of Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army ( T.me/growler_party, July 27). Another breakthrough happened in the Staromayorskoye-Staromlinovka-Orlinskoye direction, as the Russian defensive lines there had not been prepared in strict engineering terms. Ukrainian units finally managed to break through the Russian echeloned defensive lines in the area of Priyutnoye-Staromayorskoye-Novodonetske and now threaten to enter the operational zone in the direction of Tokmak. At the time of writing, Ukrainian forces had managed to reach the so-called “Surovikin Line” in a number of places.
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